The use of subjective probabilities (credences) in single-case forecasting is justified when people have skin in the game via prediction markets, because this creates incentive alignment and forces calibration, but subjective probability assignments in the abstract are often meaningless and serve primarily as a way to rhetorically privilege one's own beliefs.

normativepending

Speaker

Steven Pinker

Evidence Quote

the pundits...are regularly outperformed by the Nerds who cautiously assign numbers to their degree of credences and increment or decrement them based on knowledge

Source

David Deutsch & Steven Pinker (First Ever Public Dialogue) — AGI, P(Doom), & The Enemies of ProgressJoseph Noel Walker
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:21:48 PM

My Notes

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