The Geopolitics Of a Changing World by Professor Jeffrey Sachs

The prisoner's dilemma game shows that under conditions of mutual uncertainty and competitive incentives, both the U.S. and Russia rationally choose escalation even though mutual de-escalation (cooperation in the top-left cell) would leave both better off, trapping them in the bottom-right cell of mutual loss—the core of the tragedy of great power politics.

“if Russia de-escalates the U.S says well if we de-escalate we get five but if we escalate we get 10. so if Russia de-escalates we should escalate...what about if Russia escalates well if we de-escalate disaster we get -10 but if we also escalate not good but not as bad as de-escalating minus five so whatever Russia does our best strategy is to escalate this is the so-called dominant strategy...both sides escalate that's mirrorsheimer's point that that is the rational action to take”

Kennedy's principle 'let us never negotiate out of fear but let us never fear to negotiate' and Reagan's principle 'trust but verify' are the two essential foundations for moving from escalation to de-escalation in great power conflicts, requiring both the willingness to talk and verification mechanisms to ensure compliance.

“I believe that the two answers to this first is a point that John F Kennedy made...let us never negotiate out of fear but let us never fear to negotiate we need to sit down to talk it's surprising how talking is a human activity that makes a substantive difference in allowing a solution to a social dilemma the other is a point that Ronald Reagan emphasized agreement is not based on trust it's not based on naivete it is trust but verify”

John F. Kennedy nearly stumbled into full-scale nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis despite coming into office more sensitive to nuclear dangers than any modern U.S. president, demonstrating how even wise leaders can be drawn toward catastrophe by the structural dynamics of state power and international competition.

“Kennedy came in more sensitive to this subject then any president of modern history yet he nearly stumbled into full-scale nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis and this is something telling for us also because the world is difficult and complicated and even if you come in with the wisdom of this statement because of how state power works and misfunctions and terrible blunders by Kennedy in the early stages of his government especially the invasion of Cuba in the spring of 1961 and the lies that he told about it initially and he's my favorite President uh this by his actions and the subsequent actions of the Soviet chairman Nikita Khrushchev brought us to not just the brink of nuclear war but seconds of within the launch of nuclear war”

The world holds technologies capable of ending poverty and providing universal education and healthcare, but these same technologies enable thermonuclear weapons and environmental destruction, creating an existential duality where the choice between human flourishing and annihilation is now in human hands.

“we have technologies that are remarkable so remarkable that if we put our mind to it poverty could be ended education could be accessible to every child in the world we could have Universal Health Coverage...but those same Technologies that same breakthrough in science of how semiconductors work or how solid-state physics works is also the same technology that enables us to make thermonuclear weapons to destroy the world through nuclear war”

In 2008, the U.S. announced plans to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia, which Putin explicitly stated would be Russia's red line, telling Bush in Bucharest that 'you do this, you will find out'—establishing a clear warning that NATO expansion to Ukraine would trigger military response.

“and in 2008 it said we will expand NATO to Ukraine and to Georgia take a look at the map to understand what this is about the goal is to surround Russia in the Black Sea this is an explicit understanding because then you have Ukraine Romania Bulgaria turkey Georgia completely surrounding the Russian Fleet in Sebastopol that's the goal that Russia is unable to project any power in the Eastern Mediterranean or the Middle East Putin told bush in Bucharest in 2008 you do this you will find out this is absolutely our red line don't do this”

In 1820 Asia held 60 percent of global output and per capita incomes were roughly equal between Asia and the North Atlantic region, but the steam engine (invented by James Watt in 1776) gave Britain decisive technological advantage, enabling the British conquest of India and subjugation of Asia, creating the Divergence period (1800-1950) where North Atlantic output peaked at 80 percent by 1950.

“as late as 1820 Asia had 60 percent of world output and as late as 1820 the Indian subcontinent was the manufacturing center of the world...in 1790 the steam engine was connected to a belt to move the spinning Jennys and to move the power looms and the rest one could say history Britain used every trick in the book uh protectionism control over the ports military force and mechanization to destroy the Indian uh text style industry in the early 19th century...by 1950 basically and from then on the lines start to converge again”

Game theory research shows that when parties playing the prisoner's dilemma communicate with each other before playing, they cooperate approximately 90 percent of the time even without binding agreements, demonstrating that dialogue fundamentally changes the game structure and enables cooperation.

“in-game Theory there is a famous finding and the famous finding is if you let people playing the prisoners dilemma talk with each other before they played even without any binding agreement they will cooperate 90 of the time and so the mere human touch of negotiation changes the game fundamentally”

The current generation of young people will receive a world in very fragile shape, facing extraordinary dangers from great power conflicts, environmental destruction, and nuclear war, and will need wisdom, cooperation, and collaboration across generations and borders to salvage human values and prevent catastrophe.

“you are very very soon the leaders of this world uh you're going to receive a world in very fragile shape I have to tell you and we're going to need and you're going to need your wisdom and your cooperation and collaboration across the world and across your generation to salvage some uh the human values that Allama Iqbal I aspired to so it's a especially meaningful for me to give a lecture in his memory and especially in the memory of of his purposes”

After Gorbachev's unilateral Warsaw Pact dissolution, the U.S. and West Germany explicitly promised the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand eastward, a commitment documented in George Washington University archives, but the U.S. broke this promise repeatedly under Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations through NATO expansion to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the Baltics, and finally toward Ukraine and Georgia.

“at the time that Gorbachev made this move the United States and Germany especially Germany because it was interested in German reunification made very clear that the West would not take advantage of the Soviets unilateral action by expanding the U.S military Alliance Eastward this is not a myth this is hard facts and you can find this on uh the uh George Washington University archives...the U.S had a different view the U.S starting in 1992 took the view that now we were in a U.S led world a unipolar world and that the U.S could do what it wanted”

Allama Iqbal, in 'The Reconstruction of Religious Thought in Islam,' articulated Islam as a message for all humanity (not only believers), advocated for rational foundations of Islamic thought aligned with science, and called for a single human family united through the brotherhood of man transcending race, nationality, color, and language.

“Iqbal has a great thinker and philosopher as well as a poet and I can't vouch for his poetry through translation but I can vouch for his wisdom in this wonderful book of the Reconstruction of religious thought in Islam offered the goal of Islam as a message for all Humanity not a message for the Believers a message for all humanity and he argued that we need to search for rational foundations uh science and Islam...only one Unity is dependable and that is unity of the Brotherhood of Man which is above Race nationality color or language”

The United Nations, founded by Franklin Roosevelt as the greatest idea of his presidency, remains indispensable for human survival despite its fragility in the face of great power politics, private greed, and state impunity, and represents the best available institutional framework for expressing universal human family aspirations.

“I believe that the United Nations which was the greatest idea of our greatest President Franklin Roosevelt remains indispensable for our survival even as its fragility is evident in the face of great power politics private greed and state impunity so the world's very difficult the UN has a very difficult time functioning in a difficult world but it remains in my view our best hope for the universal Human family”

The U.S. and Europe did not actually isolate Russia through sanctions; Russia continues trading with Africa, Latin America, and Asia, and when U.N. votes are counted by population, roughly 60-70 percent of the world consistently refuses to vote with the West, while the West gets 20-30 percent of votes, showing that the Ukraine conflict is a Western project not a globally supported position.

“the United States and Europe did not isolate Russia at all Russia trades with all of the rest of the world with Africa with Latin America and with Asia when you count the votes at the U.N if you count them by population roughly 60 to 70 percent of the world always refuses to vote with the West the West gets somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of the vote most typically this is a western project and it is a western project either because of the most absurd failure of diplomacy or because they're not telling the truth”

Sachs, despite 40 years of engagement with China and having many students and friends in senior positions in China, could never have imagined that U.S.-China tensions would reach current levels, proving that he was wrong and Mearsheimer's prediction of China becoming an enemy was correct as China's power grew.

“I have to say he was right I was certainly wrong because I've been engaged with China for 40 years now many of my students are senior officials in China many are academics in China and I could never imagine that we would have these tensions because China is not a threat to the world only in our newspapers is a threat to the world...as mirsheimer predicted uncannily in 2002 he said this will lead to the onset of hostility I have to say he was right”

Rachel's observation that reducing economic inequality between ethnic groups helps build peace is correct, and Sachs' discussion implies that shared economic interests and prosperity create structural incentives for cooperation that reduce inter-ethnic and inter-national violence.

“I think in looking for solutions to into ethnic conflict I would hunt to my own doctoral research which suggests that looking at bridging economic inequality between different ethnic groups helps to build Peace”

Britain used protectionism, control over ports, military force, and mechanization to destroy the Indian textile industry in the early 19th century and subsequently subjugate India, which had been the textile center of the world at the end of the 18th century.

“Britain used every trick in the book uh protectionism control over the ports military force and mechanization to destroy the Indian uh text style industry in the early 19th century and to subjugate India afterwards”

China overtook the United States in total GDP measured at purchasing power parity in 2011, according to IMF data, making it the larger economy, and this economic convergence has led to the onset of hostility and U.S. efforts to contain China.

“according to the international monetary fund China overtook the United States in total output in 2011. these are GDP measured at purchasing power prices not at market exchange rates”

After the 2014 overthrow, Ukrainian military forces and units broke away and began insurgency in Lugansk and Donetsk with weapons and equipment derived from Ukrainian Army contingents; the US then sent billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine from 2014-2021 to build up the Ukrainian military.

“the month after Russia retook Crimea many Russian forces in the Ukrainian military broke away from the military took their equipment and started the Insurrection in luganskin Donetsk these were Ukrainian weapons that came from contingents of the Ukrainian Army the fighting started in eastern Ukraine at that time the United States send billions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine During the period 2014 to 2021 building Ukraine's Army and modernizing it”

Fear operates as a subcortical, fast, reactive decision-making system that derails the cognitive, rational acts needed to move from conflict to cooperation; addressing fear requires engagement of higher cognitive functions and understanding of the other side's legitimate concerns.

“fear is a deep driver of this...they're wonderful articles by psychologists social psychologists neuroscientists and conflict resolution Specialists emphasizing the role of fear really as a subcortical fast uh reactive kind of decision-making to move from the lower right cell in Conflict to the upper left cell in cooperation is a cognitive act it's not an emotional act it's a cognitive act and fear derails that kind of cognitive act to an important extent”

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) now have larger combined GDP than the G7 countries, representing remarkable economic convergence and the end of the 150-year period of North Atlantic dominance that resulted from technological divergence after the steam engine invention.

“the brics countries Brazil Russia India China and South Africa are now larger than the G7 countries this is rather remarkable to my mind great because it means economic convergence taking place it means a narrowing of the Gap it means that the strange Divergence of the industrial era from roughly 1750 I'll say until 1950 which produced the north atlantic-led world is over good why should the North Atlantic with 10 percent of the world population lead the world”

Technological convergence—where poor countries narrow the capability and income gap with rich countries—paradoxically increases the risk of great power wars because rising powers compete more aggressively to achieve dominance, triggering the Thucydides Trap where incumbent powers fear being overtaken while rising powers fear being contained.

“technological convergence means that the poor countries are catching up with the Richer countries surprisingly that's also conducive to war but typically to the wars of competition because as the poorer countries are narrowing the Gap with the Richer countries the two come into direct competition with each other so periods of technological convergence tend to be periods of Wars of competition...Rising Powers fear that they'll be held back by incumbent powers...incumbent Powers fear they'll be overtaken by Rising Powers that's the so-called thucydides trap”

Kennedy's 1963 peace speech, in which he called for U.S. empathy toward the Soviet Union and recognition that Soviets were humans wanting peace, directly led to Khrushchev's willingness to sign a nuclear test ban treaty six weeks later—demonstrating that empathy and respect for the other side enable diplomatic breakthroughs.

“when he gave this speech Nikita Khrushchev heard it called the American Envoy in Moscow Avril Harriman and said this is the finest speech by an American president since Franklin Roosevelt I want to sign a peace agreement with your president six weeks later the partial nuclear Test Ban Treaty was signed this is how to get from the lower right to the upper left corner empathy Humanity decency speaking to the other side”

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, brought to fruition by Eleanor Roosevelt through dialogue with philosophers, theologians, and leaders across all faiths, represents the closest humanity has come to expressing a common shared ethical ideal based on the proposition that all humans are born free and equal in dignity and rights.

“We are the 75th anniversary of the universal Declaration of Human Rights which is the closest we've ever come as Humanity to expressing a common shared ideal this was brought to fruition by Eleanor Roosevelt who was the remarkable wife of our remarkable president and she was absolutely remarkable and in every way and brought together philosophers and theologians uh and uh leaders from across the world and from all faiths to forge the universal Declaration of Human Rights and it is based on the idea that all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights”

In 2014, the U.S. helped overthrow the Ukrainian government of Yanukovych, with evidence including a recording of Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Newland discussing future cabinet appointments two weeks before the coup, and U.S. funding of the Maidan demonstrations and violent protests that preceded the overthrow.

“in 2014 the United States helped to overthrow the Ukrainian government have no doubt about it you can even listen to the tape of Victoria Newman who was then the assistant Secretary of State speaking to the U.S ambassador in Ukraine Jeffrey piatt about who's going to come into the government two weeks before the overthrow I know firsthand about this the United States helped to pay for the maidan revolution so-called the protest the demonstrations and the violence that came came from the Ukrainian side not from these security forces of Yanukovych this was a coup you this is important to understand because those are the first shots of the war”

The U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 was taken by Russia as a direct and immediate threat of potential U.S. first-strike capability, and the subsequent Iraq invasion on false pretenses represented reckless regime change wars that escalated Russian threat perception further.

“then came two terrible decisions first the United States unilaterally walked out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty in 2002. this was taken as a direct and immediate threat to Russia because it meant the possibility of the United States looking for First Strike potential against Russia it was a unilateral action by one of our worst governments in our modern history...then in 2003 came the completely unprovoked Iraq War on completely false pretenses hooked up phony intelligence to launch a war of regime change again that raised temperatures further”

In 2011, the U.S. instructed the CIA to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria, creating a U.S. regime change operation (rather than a civil war) that the U.N. negotiated an end to in 2012, but the U.S. rejected the ceasefire specifically because it refused to accept Assad's continued rule, prolonging Syrian suffering for regime change objective.

“in 2011 President Obama instructed the CIA and other parts of the U.S government to overthrow Bashar al-assad in Syria this was a U.S regime change operation the war broke out because of the United States Army a mercenary Army together with Saudi Arabia to overthrow Assad there would have been no war but for the United States in 2012 the U.N negotiated an end to the Syrian War it was rejected by one country the United States because the U.S said we insist on regime change as a predicate for ending this war”

NATO expansion in 1999 to Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary, following the bombing of Serbia for 48 days to achieve regime change and break Kosovo away, represented the first war in Europe since World War II and raised Russian security concerns significantly, with George Kennan warning at the time that NATO expansion would lead to a new Cold War.

“The Next Step was 1999 for a variety of reasons NATO bombed Serbia 48 straight days to break Serbia into and to break Kosovo outside of Serbia it was disgraceful in my opinion that was the first war in Europe since World War II not the Ukraine war it was directed at Russia's close Ally and it was directed at regime change...the greatest Statesman of and Scholar of U.S Russian relations in our Modern History George Cannon said this will lead to a new Cold War declaring that at 1997”