There is nonzero probability that AI capex produces poor returns for some investors or creates supply-demand imbalances leading to diluted returns, or that technology costs decline over time such that faster spending is suboptimal to waiting.

The burden of proof is on mega-funds to demonstrate they can pick power law outcomes at a higher hit rate than traditional venture, or they risk merely expanding the 'long tail' of investments, which will dilute overall returns.

Early-stage companies showing traction get flooded with investment offers and capital, which can be risky because founders may take excessive personal payouts before product-market fit, destroying the founder's incentive to execute the business plan.