The central problem with behavioral economics is not that heuristics and biases exist but that the field misunderstands probability structure and confuses empirical observations of human decision-making with irrationality—most of what they label irrational is actually rational under fat tails or misrepresents how probability works.
causalpending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“I tell them the risk is not the one you see see you have tail risks that don't show in your analysis... the world is not a goian and you're recommending that for 401k and stuff like that so then I noticed that's just you know first mistake in Sailor... and to me rationality is in survival not in other things”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
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