The measurement-problem argument can be partially validated by historical precedent: antibiotics were also difficult to measure precisely in early economic data, yet they produced substantial GDP gains, pharmaceutical sector output gains, and life expectancy improvements; however, AI pharmaceuticals have not yet demonstrated comparable results and life expectancy is not increasing, so the analogy is limited.

causalpending

Speaker

Daron Acemoglu

Evidence Quote

We did not measure the benefits from antibiotics that well either. But you still got amazing improvements... Life expectancy increased tremendously with antibiotics. Well, life expectancy is not increasing. We're not seeing any of the AI facilitated pharmaceuticals do anything yet.

Source

AI Is Not Improving Productivity: Nobel Laureate Daron AcemogluMIT Sloan Management Review
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:05:02 PM

My Notes

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