You cannot be a rich forecaster by being good at forecasting; the only way to make large amounts of money is to take positions with convex payoff functions where forecasting errors actually improve returns.
factualpending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“people good at forecasting like in Banks they're never rich I mean they make them talk to customers and then people customers remember oh yeah he forecast this but the there's there's another thing I want to add here about the function if you take a conx function uh and you're betting against it”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
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