Probability matching—where people allocate resources proportionally to observed success frequencies rather than concentrating on the highest-frequency option—is often labeled irrational but is actually optimal under entropy-maximizing (Kelly-style) models.
causalpending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“if something comes up 40% of the time and something comes up 60% of the time that you should invest 100% of the time in the higher frequency want but in nature and in you know animals but but also humans do probably mhing and when you write the math using uh entropy like uh you know in this U Kelly uh style modeling uh you if I have 10 horses and I got allocate among the time horses if I maximize want to maximize the expected return how do I allocate and proportion probably”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
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